Bangladesh coup: US deep state in India's backyard?

The situation in Bangladesh raises several pertinent questions -- was Sheikh Hasina, the former Prime Minister, centralising power? Was she suppressing opposition voices or manipulating elections? These are all possibilities. However, one thing is clear: her removal from office was far from being an organic revolution driven by public dissatisfaction.

The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh appears to have the imprint of external forces, particularly the United States. Prior to her ousting, Sheikh Hasina reportedly mentioned during a private meeting at her official residence, Ganabhaban, that there was a "conspiracy" to remove her from power. 

'Cruel intentions'

Speculation has been rife that the US was displeased with her re-election in January 2024. Media reports even suggest that there may be a broader geopolitical strategy at play, involving the creation of a "Christian state" by annexing parts of Bangladesh (Chattogram) and Myanmar, as well as potentially regions from India's North-East. Such a state -- named Saint Martin Island -- would provide a strategic buffer in the Bay of Bengal. It would also serve as a possible US airbase.

Since the dissolution of the USSR, US foreign policy has been largely focused on maintaining its dominant global position. The rise of China has posed a challenge to this hegemony, and there are claims that the US has employed various methods to limit India's progress as well. Allegations include covertly arming Kuki militants in Manipur, supplying F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, and financially supporting evangelical churches in Andhra Pradesh, potentially influencing incumbent Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu to withdraw support from the NDA government at the Centre.

While these claims may not be supported by definitive evidence, they do paint a picture that is difficult to dismiss. One particularly significant detail is the appointment of Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus as the interim head of Bangladesh following Hasina's removal. Yunus, a long-time adversary of Hasina, is seen by some as a figurehead installed by the US State Department, a move that could reverse the economic and social progress Bangladesh has made in recent years.

The consequences of this political turmoil could be severe: economic instability, sectarian violence, the radicalisation of Bangladeshi society, and an influx of refugees into India are all potential outcomes. For the United States, these may be viewed as unfortunate but manageable side effects. In any case, this won't be the first time for the US. The country's actions have led to far worse outcomes -- remember the invasion of Iraq on the pretext of non-existent weapons of mass destruction?

Diabolical Democrats?

The tension between Hasina and Yunus gained greater prominence with the advent of the Biden administration. Sources close to Hasina claimed that the US applied pressure on the Bangladeshi government to halt investigations into Yunus, particularly concerning allegations of tax fraud and money laundering. In fact, when the government announced its intention to scrutinise the operations of Yunus' Grameen Bank, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly opposed any actions that might undermine the bank’s achievements. Both Hillary and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have been vocal supporters of Yunus.

It seems evident that the US, and particularly the Democratic Party, has played a key role in this unfolding geopolitical drama. There's a smoking gun -- to quote former US President George W Bush Junior. Whether this dynamic will change should Donald Trump return to the White House later this year remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar will have to navigate these developments carefully. Until then, India must remain vigilant.